AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 26

Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers
1:3
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
35%65%
xG
2.53.1
High danger
44
Chances
614
Shots
3631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal31
6Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances4
2.52Expected goals3.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st15–51–30–10.9–0.7
2nd7–122–52–10.8–1.1
3rd14–143–62–20.8–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
36
Saves
35
Allowed
1
xGA
2.52
GSAx
+1.52
Spencer Knight
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
3.08
GSAx
+0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:28Penalty
  • 1st 9:20Jakub Vrana (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Spencer Knight
  • 2nd 2:13Patrick Giles (1–1)low · 30 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 3:51Matthew Peca (1–2)low · 68 ft · beat Spencer Knight
  • 2nd 10:19Penalty
  • 2nd 16:26Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 3rd 3:58Penalty
  • 3rd 3:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:56Penalty
  • 3rd 10:21Penalty
  • 3rd 13:02Penalty
  • 3rd 19:36Mathias Laferrière (1–3)empty net · medium · 17 ft · beat Spencer Knight