Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets

4:0

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 3.12.8
High danger: 77
Chances: 1110
Shots: 2832

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances10

7High-danger chances7

3.13Expected goals2.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	3–5	1–5	1.2–1.3
2nd	6–12	3–4	2–2	0.7–0.9
3rd	9–10	5–1	4–0	1.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 32
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.76
GSAx: +2.76

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: -0.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:03Penalty
1st 11:13Penalty
1st 15:15Ryan Schmelzer (1–0)medium · 11 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 2:39Penalty
2nd 4:03Joe Gambardella (2–0)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 10:38Penalty
3rd 15:30Arnaud Durandeau (3–0)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 17:30Michael Vukojevic (4–0)empty net · low · 182 ft · beat Devin Cooley