Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

2:5

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.62.9
High danger: 43
Chances: 812
Shots: 2334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal34

8Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances3

2.55Expected goals2.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	3–2	3–1	1.4–0.5
2nd	4–14	0–6	0–1	0.2–1.2
3rd	9–14	5–4	1–1	1.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	2:38 of the 3rd	17:22	17:22	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -2.07

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +0.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:44Mark Jankowski (0–1)high · 17 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 8:13David Gust (1–1)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 17:02Penalty
1st 19:47Penalty
2nd 3:34Joakim Kemell (1–2)medium · 34 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 9:59Penalty
3rd 0:39Egor Afanasyev (1–3)medium · 26 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 2:18Penalty
3rd 2:38Zach L’Heureux (1–4)4v5 · grade A · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 9:37Egor Afanasyev (1–5)low · 30 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 10:01Jackson Cates (2–5)low · 26 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 13:57Penalty