San Diego Gulls at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

San Diego Gulls

6:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

SDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.81.5
High danger: 62
Chances: 113
Shots: 2827

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal27

11Scoring chances3

6High-danger chances2

3.77Expected goals1.50

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	4–0	3–0	1.3–0.4
2nd	8–12	3–2	0–1	0.7–0.8
3rd	12–6	4–1	3–1	1.8–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	6:44	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Peyton Jones

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 22
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.78
GSAx: -2.22

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.50
GSAx: -1.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:54Penalty
1st 5:54Penalty
1st 11:37Pavol Regenda (1–0)high · 11 ft · beat Peyton Jones
1st 12:06Pavol Regenda (2–0)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Peyton Jones
1st 15:02Nic Petan (2–1)low · 26 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
1st 18:31Steven Fogarty (2–2)low · 20 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 2:15Penalty
2nd 14:04Penalty
2nd 18:33Penalty
2nd 19:20Penalty
3rd 5:52Jaxsen Wiebe (3–2)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Peyton Jones
3rd 11:42Andrew Agozzino (4–2)grade A · 18 ft · beat Peyton Jones
3rd 11:54Penalty
3rd 15:48Mason Shaw (4–3)high · 17 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 17:45Nikita Nesterenko (5–3)empty net · low · 107 ft · beat Peyton Jones
3rd 19:18Nathan Gaucher (6–3)empty net · high · 4 ft · beat Peyton Jones