Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

5:1

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.64.5
High danger: 48
Chances: 1118
Shots: 2742

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal42

11Scoring chances18

4High-danger chances8

2.62Expected goals4.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–15	0–4	0–3	0.3–1.4
2nd	12–14	5–8	3–5	1.2–2.0
3rd	11–13	6–6	1–0	1.1–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	3	5:46 of the 3rd	14:14	14:14	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 41
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.46
GSAx: +3.46

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: -2.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:38Penalty
1st 2:11Martin Chromiak (1–0)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 12:20Penalty
2nd 1:59Penalty
2nd 4:03Nate Smith (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 11:17Akil Thomas (2–1)high · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 16:12Martin Chromiak (3–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 16:24Penalty
2nd 16:24Penalty
2nd 16:24Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
3rd 0:30Penalty
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 5:12Penalty
3rd 5:46Martin Chromiak (4–1)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 7:49Penalty
3rd 8:24Charles Hudon (5–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 14:07Penalty
3rd 15:31Penalty
3rd 15:31Penalty
3rd 15:31Penalty