AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 27

Laval Rocket at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Laval Rocket
4:7
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

LAVROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
17%83%
xG
2.33.5
High danger
27
Chances
514
Shots
3534

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal34
5Scoring chances14
2High-danger chances7
2.34Expected goals3.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–122–40–30.5–1.3
2nd10–141–71–30.8–1.6
3rd15–82–31–11.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LAV−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LAV32:14 of the 3rd17:4617:46+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Eric Comrie
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
2.34
GSAx
-1.66
Strauss Mann
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
2.38
GSAx
-0.62
Kasimir Kaskisuo
Shots faced
10
Saves
6
Allowed
4
xGA
1.15
GSAx
-2.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:41Michael Mersch (0–1)low · 54 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
  • 1st 4:52Emil Heineman (1–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Eric Comrie
  • 1st 8:09Nikita Novikov (1–2)low · 14 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
  • 1st 10:45Justin Richards (1–3)low · 26 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
  • 1st 15:16Brett Murray (1–4)high · 18 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
  • 1st 18:40Penalty
  • 2nd 4:01Emil Heineman (2–4)low · 51 ft · beat Eric Comrie
  • 2nd 10:29Penalty
  • 2nd 13:28Viktor Neuchev (2–5)grade A · 11 ft · beat Strauss Mann
  • 2nd 18:38Filip Cederqvist (3–5)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Eric Comrie
  • 3rd 2:14Linus Weissbach (3–6)high · 13 ft · beat Strauss Mann
  • 3rd 8:19Brett Murray (3–7)medium · 29 ft · beat Strauss Mann
  • 3rd 8:45Penalty
  • 3rd 9:49Jan Myšák (4–7)4v5 · medium · 22 ft · beat Eric Comrie
  • 3rd 19:20Penalty
  • 3rd 19:20Penalty