Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

3:2

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 2.93.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 1610
Shots: 2834

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal34

16Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances4

2.89Expected goals2.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	6–4	1–4	1.1–1.2
2nd	10–9	8–4	2–0	1.2–0.9
3rd	6–13	2–2	1–0	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: +0.97

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:10Radim Zohorna (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 3:36Penalty
1st 6:25Ethen Frank (1–1)low · 39 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 13:36Penalty
1st 14:38Penalty
1st 19:26Penalty
2nd 4:58Penalty
2nd 6:24Pierrick Dubé (2–1)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 9:46Penalty
2nd 16:14Penalty
2nd 17:05Penalty
2nd 18:39Vinnie Hinostroza (2–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 4:00Penalty
3rd 11:29Ethen Frank (3–2)low · 39 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 16:59Penalty
3rd 16:59Penalty