Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins

3:1

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 3.33.3
High danger: 35
Chances: 1115
Shots: 3632

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances15

3High-danger chances5

3.28Expected goals3.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	5–3	1–1	1.1–0.6
2nd	11–12	1–7	1–2	0.8–1.2
3rd	15–14	5–5	1–2	1.4–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	17:33 of the 3rd	2:27	2:27	+0.051 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: +1.25

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.30
GSAx: +2.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:49Penalty
1st 4:54Penalty
1st 8:37Penalty
1st 11:42Penalty
1st 15:07Penalty
2nd 8:16Penalty
2nd 12:37Penalty
2nd 13:15Penalty
2nd 16:45Penalty
3rd 12:13Brett Harrison (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 13:53Penalty
3rd 16:22Dennis Cholowski (1–1)low · 58 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 17:22Penalty
3rd 17:33Anthony Richard (2–1)4v5 · low · 45 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 19:39Jayson Megna (3–1)empty net · low · 54 ft