AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 27

San Diego Gulls at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

San Diego Gulls
7:4
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

SDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
53%47%
xG
2.72.4
High danger
43
Chances
129
Shots
2332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal32
12Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances3
2.73Expected goals2.42

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–63–12–01.1–0.3
2nd5–163–41–00.6–1.1
3rd9–106–41–31.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
2.42
GSAx
-1.58
Zane McIntyre
Shots faced
23
Saves
16
Allowed
7
xGA
2.73
GSAx
-4.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:50Penalty
  • 1st 4:13Nikita Nesterenko (1–0)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 1st 10:03Pavol Regenda (2–0)grade A · 21 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 1st 18:02Sasha Pastujov (3–0)low · 41 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 2nd 3:38Penalty
  • 2nd 7:39Penalty
  • 2nd 11:07Penalty
  • 2nd 11:20Sasha Pastujov (4–0)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 2nd 14:40David Špaček (4–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 15:41Carson Lambos (4–2)medium · 26 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 17:17Sasha Pastujov (5–2)high · 23 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 2nd 17:34Penalty
  • 2nd 17:34Penalty
  • 3rd 1:10Nikita Nesterenko (6–2)low · 24 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
  • 3rd 2:55Penalty
  • 3rd 5:13Mason Shaw (6–3)high · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 6:57Penalty
  • 3rd 6:57Penalty
  • 3rd 8:21Penalty
  • 3rd 11:59Penalty
  • 3rd 12:12Mason Shaw (6–4)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 17:48Nikita Nesterenko (7–4)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Zane McIntyre