Syracuse Crunch at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Syracuse Crunch

1:3

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SYRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.62.5
High danger: 12
Chances: 59
Shots: 2329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal29

5Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances2

1.61Expected goals2.50

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	3–4	1–1	1.0–1.2
2nd	7–14	1–3	0–1	0.4–0.8
3rd	3–5	1–2	0–0	0.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.50
GSAx: -0.50

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.61
GSAx: +0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:41Penalty
1st 13:56Joe Carroll (1–0)low · 35 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 11:02Penalty
2nd 14:34Penalty
2nd 17:15Penalty
2nd 17:15Penalty
3rd 0:28Erik Middendorf (1–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 1:48Penalty
3rd 8:13Graeme Clarke (1–2)medium · 34 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 14:58Penalty
3rd 19:46Ryan Schmelzer (1–3)empty net · low · 42 ft · beat Matt Tomkins