Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers

1:6

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 3.75.0
High danger: 69
Chances: 1721
Shots: 3039

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal39

17Scoring chances21

6High-danger chances9

3.68Expected goals5.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	6–6	2–4	1.3–1.1
2nd	10–15	6–8	2–2	1.3–1.7
3rd	10–15	5–7	2–3	1.0–2.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ludovic Waeber

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 33
Allowed: 6
xGA: 5.00
GSAx: -1.00

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.68
GSAx: +2.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:37Mikhail Abramov (0–1)high · 27 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
1st 6:35Penalty
1st 12:28Penalty
1st 15:15Penalty
1st 16:48Penalty
2nd 0:44Patrick Khodorenko (1–1)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 1:02Penalty
2nd 1:16Hugh McGing (1–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
2nd 7:58Penalty
2nd 10:22Hunter Skinner (1–3)low · 64 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
2nd 14:00Mathias Laferrière (1–4)low · 34 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
2nd 17:06Penalty
3rd 1:55Ryan Suzuki (1–5)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
3rd 6:59Will Bitten (1–6)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
3rd 7:35Penalty
3rd 14:39Penalty