Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

5:0

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

88%12%

xG: 2.71.2
High danger: 61
Chances: 114
Shots: 3317

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal17

11Scoring chances4

6High-danger chances1

2.74Expected goals1.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–4	2–1	1–0	0.4–0.3
2nd	19–10	3–3	1–1	1.1–0.8
3rd	10–3	6–0	4–0	1.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 28
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: -2.26

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 17
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.23
GSAx: +1.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:22Penalty
1st 8:18Adam Wilsby (1–0)low · 72 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 13:37Liam Foudy (2–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 6:26Penalty
2nd 6:26Penalty
2nd 7:02Fedor Svechkov (3–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 9:40Jake Livingstone (4–0)low · 52 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 19:33Penalty
3rd 9:35Mark Jankowski (5–0)high · 10 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 10:26Penalty
3rd 14:51Penalty
3rd 18:26Penalty