Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose

5:3

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

83%17%

xG: 3.01.4
High danger: 72
Chances: 105
Shots: 3118

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal18

10Scoring chances5

7High-danger chances2

2.98Expected goals1.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	2–3	2–2	0.8–0.9
2nd	10–4	4–2	2–0	0.9–0.4
3rd	9–4	4–0	3–0	1.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: -2.02

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 15
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.43
GSAx: -1.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:56Simon Lundmark (1–0)low · 59 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 12:52Penalty
1st 18:05Nolan Allan (1–1)low · rebound · 62 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 1:28Penalty
2nd 4:23Penalty
2nd 7:46Ville Heinola (2–1)low · 62 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 8:16Austin Strand (2–2)low · 56 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 10:37Jeffrey Viel (3–2)high · 21 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 12:02Penalty
2nd 18:25Kristian Reichel (4–2)low · 37 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 19:58Austin Strand (4–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 2:08Penalty
3rd 3:45Parker Ford (5–3)5v4 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 6:21Penalty
3rd 9:28Penalty