AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 27

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Coachella Valley Firebirds
5:1
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

CVTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
64%36%
xG
2.62.2
High danger
53
Chances
96
Shots
2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26
9Scoring chances6
5High-danger chances3
2.60Expected goals2.15

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–113–41–30.7–1.3
2nd13–74–12–01.2–0.5
3rd7–82–12–00.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX311:14 of the 3rd8:468:46+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
29
Saves
24
Allowed
5
xGA
2.60
GSAx
-2.40
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
26
Saves
25
Allowed
1
xGA
2.16
GSAx
+1.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:38Max McCormick (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 5:49Penalty
  • 1st 9:55Riley Damiani (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 10:51Penalty
  • 1st 11:09John Hayden (2–1)4v5 · medium · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 14:12Penalty
  • 1st 14:12Penalty
  • 1st 14:12Penalty
  • 1st 14:12Penalty
  • 2nd 1:02Max McCormick (3–1)low · 22 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 7:59Penalty
  • 2nd 9:34Penalty
  • 2nd 13:51Penalty
  • 3rd 0:19Penalty
  • 3rd 0:28Penalty
  • 3rd 6:13Penalty
  • 3rd 11:14John Hayden (4–1)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 12:40Kole Lind (5–1)low · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 16:34Penalty