Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

4:5

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 3.03.3
High danger: 26
Chances: 1218
Shots: 3329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances18

2High-danger chances6

3.05Expected goals3.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–14	1–10	0–5	0.4–1.9
2nd	11–6	4–3	1–0	1.1–0.5
3rd	16–9	7–5	1–1	1.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	19:10	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: -0.95

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.29
GSAx: -1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:31Penalty
1st 13:46Cameron Hebig (0–1)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 15:09Milos Kelemen (0–2)medium · 31 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 7:34Colin Theisen (0–3)medium · 33 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 8:09Akil Thomas (1–3)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 8:54Penalty
2nd 8:54Penalty
2nd 16:07Milos Kelemen (1–4)medium · 26 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 4:39Josh Doan (1–5)high · 19 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 6:37Penalty
3rd 8:14Charles Hudon (2–5)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 15:36Samuel Helenius (3–5)high · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 16:06Samuel Helenius (4–5)medium · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty