AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 27

Abbotsford Canucks at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Abbotsford Canucks
3:2
Final / OT
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ABBBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
2.92.8
High danger
25
Chances
1110
Shots
3530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal30
11Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances5
2.94Expected goals2.77

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–93–20–11.0–0.7
2nd12–86–42–11.2–1.0
3rd5–130–40–30.2–1.0
OT6–02–00–00.5–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:041:31+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
2.94
GSAx
-0.06
Artūrs Šilovs
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
2.77
GSAx
+0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:07Penalty
  • 1st 3:07Penalty
  • 1st 5:03Penalty
  • 1st 5:03Penalty
  • 1st 5:27Lane Pederson (0–1)low · 34 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 1st 13:07Penalty
  • 1st 13:49Vasily Podkolzin (1–1)5v4 · low · 57 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 5:09Penalty
  • 2nd 9:31Penalty
  • 2nd 14:36Penalty
  • 2nd 14:36Penalty
  • 2nd 14:36Penalty
  • 2nd 14:36Penalty
  • 2nd 14:49Penalty
  • 2nd 18:03Penalty
  • 2nd 18:20Vasily Podkolzin (2–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 18:52Penalty
  • 3rd 6:55Penalty
  • 3rd 18:27Ben Gleason (2–2)high · 31 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • OT 3:28Penalty
  • OT 4:12Max Sasson (3–2)5v4 · low · 22 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue