Charlotte Checkers at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Charlotte Checkers

1:6

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

CLTPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.42.9
High danger: 45
Chances: 911
Shots: 2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31

9Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances5

2.44Expected goals2.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	3–4	1–2	0.8–1.1
2nd	10–8	5–3	2–1	1.0–0.6
3rd	6–12	1–4	1–2	0.6–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: -2.14

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: +1.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:29Penalty
1st 14:14Penalty
2nd 1:28Justin Brazeau (0–1)medium · tip · 16 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 6:37Penalty
2nd 8:09Trevor Kuntar (0–2)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 10:58Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 17:41Wilmer Skoog (1–2)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 4:08Penalty
3rd 6:52Penalty
3rd 8:26Anthony Richard (1–3)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 14:31Justin Brazeau (1–4)medium · 20 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 17:08Alec Regula (1–5)empty net · low · 177 ft
3rd 18:25Ian Mitchell (1–6)low · 52 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 18:39Penalty