Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose

4:1

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 2.91.9
High danger: 72
Chances: 97
Shots: 2923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal23

9Scoring chances7

7High-danger chances2

2.95Expected goals1.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	1–2	1–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	12–9	4–1	3–0	1.2–0.5
3rd	7–8	4–4	3–2	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	3:35 of the 3rd	16:25	16:25	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -1.05

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: +0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:53Brad Lambert (1–0)grade A · 12 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 2:59Dawson Barteaux (2–0)low · 57 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 6:09Anders Bjork (2–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 14:54Penalty
2nd 3:15Jeffrey Viel (3–1)low · 27 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 5:08Penalty
2nd 16:41Penalty
2nd 16:41Penalty
2nd 16:41Penalty
2nd 18:41Penalty
2nd 18:41Penalty
3rd 3:35Dawson Barteaux (4–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 17:41Penalty