AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, January 30

Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles
6:3
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
81%19%
xG
3.82.0
High danger
82
Chances
167
Shots
3226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal26
16Scoring chances7
8High-danger chances2
3.84Expected goals2.05

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–67–24–11.5–0.5
2nd8–85–31–01.1–0.8
3rd10–124–23–11.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT36:16 of the 3rd13:4413:42+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo
Shots faced
32
Saves
26
Allowed
6
xGA
3.84
GSAx
-2.16
Justus Annunen
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.05
GSAx
-0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:29Penalty
  • 1st 6:08Chris Wagner (1–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 6:58Penalty
  • 1st 10:02Sam Malinski (2–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 10:26Penalty
  • 1st 14:10Penalty
  • 2nd 1:27Penalty
  • 2nd 2:14Brad Hunt (3–0)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 9:36Penalty
  • 2nd 13:25Taylor Ward (3–1)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 2nd 18:49Samuel Helenius (3–2)low · 51 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 2nd 19:34Penalty
  • 2nd 19:47Jean-Luc Foudy (4–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 1:27Penalty
  • 3rd 6:16Chris Wagner (5–2)high · 15 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 7:31Penalty
  • 3rd 12:06Cody Haiskanen (5–3)high · rebound · 41 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 3rd 15:45Penalty
  • 3rd 17:26Jason Polin (6–3)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Erik Portillo