Charlotte Checkers at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Charlotte Checkers

4:2

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

CLTHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 2.22.0
High danger: 42
Chances: 87
Shots: 2721

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal21

8Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances2

2.22Expected goals1.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–4	4–1	3–0	1.1–0.3
2nd	8–4	1–1	1–0	0.4–0.2
3rd	10–13	3–5	0–2	0.7–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -1.78

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -0.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:47Penalty
1st 8:18Karl Henriksson (0–1)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 11:39Cameron Morrison (1–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 12:17Penalty
1st 13:30Lucas Carlsson (2–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 37 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 16:52Penalty
2nd 14:21Penalty
3rd 10:30Penalty
3rd 12:00Brett Berard (2–2)4v5 · medium · 19 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 14:51Gerry Mayhew (3–2)low · 15 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 16:58Penalty
3rd 17:19Penalty
3rd 18:32Rasmus Asplund (4–2)empty net · low · 133 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 18:46Penalty