Springfield Thunderbirds at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:3

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

SPRBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 1.74.0
High danger: 17
Chances: 616
Shots: 2243

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal43

6Scoring chances16

1High-danger chances7

1.67Expected goals4.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–17	3–6	0–2	0.9–1.4
2nd	3–12	1–5	1–3	0.3–1.2
3rd	6–14	2–5	0–2	0.5–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 40
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.03
GSAx: +1.03

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.67
GSAx: +0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:09Matthew Peca (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 10:56Penalty
2nd 4:49Penalty
2nd 9:14Penalty
2nd 14:53Penalty
3rd 2:35Jeff Kubiak (1–1)grade A · 12 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 5:45Penalty
3rd 8:18Penalty
3rd 9:17Carsen Twarynski (1–2)5v4 · medium · 8 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 9:35Cole Bardreau (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 12:21Penalty
3rd 14:57Penalty