Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

4:2

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 3.02.2
High danger: 52
Chances: 135
Shots: 3127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal27

13Scoring chances5

5High-danger chances2

2.97Expected goals2.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–7	6–0	2–0	1.3–0.3
2nd	7–8	3–2	1–1	0.6–0.7
3rd	10–12	4–3	2–1	1.1–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -1.03

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: +0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:22Penalty
1st 5:10Penalty
1st 8:58Penalty
1st 11:43Penalty
1st 13:11Mike Vecchione (1–0)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 6:49Penalty
2nd 9:59Penalty
2nd 10:31Penalty
2nd 11:03Cooper Marody (1–1)low · 14 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 11:58Penalty
2nd 12:25Ronnie Attard (1–2)high · 2 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 1:16Jimmy Huntington (2–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 13:41Mike Vecchione (3–2)low · 37 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 17:56Pierrick Dubé (4–2)empty net · low · 155 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 18:48Penalty