Syracuse Crunch at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Syracuse Crunch

2:1

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

SYRROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 1.32.2
High danger: 26
Chances: 311
Shots: 1823

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal23

3Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances6

1.30Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	1–6	1–2	0.4–1.1
2nd	9–4	1–1	1–1	0.6–0.4
3rd	4–9	1–4	0–3	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +1.25

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.30
GSAx: -0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:00Penalty
1st 7:43Waltteri Merelä (1–0)4v5 · high · 21 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 10:02Mason Jobst (1–1)medium · tip · 17 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
1st 15:58Penalty
2nd 2:29Penalty
2nd 3:38Penalty
2nd 15:13Penalty
2nd 19:45Mitchell Chaffee (2–1)low · 42 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 11:16Penalty