Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

3:2

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 4.12.3
High danger: 73
Chances: 138
Shots: 3130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances8

7High-danger chances3

4.09Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	8–2	3–0	2.1–0.6
2nd	9–15	2–6	2–3	0.9–1.6
3rd	9–5	3–0	2–0	1.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.09
GSAx: +1.09

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: +0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:06Penalty
1st 10:24Penalty
1st 16:24Colin Theisen (1–0)low · wrist · 37 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 17:27Penalty
2nd 1:51Penalty
2nd 8:51Penalty
2nd 9:49Seth Griffith (1–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 33 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 19:37Matvey Petrov (1–2)low · slap · 30 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 2:32Penalty
3rd 10:33Penalty
3rd 12:23Nate Smith (2–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 13:29Jan Jeník (3–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 13:40Penalty
3rd 18:46Penalty