Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers

2:5

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.42.9
High danger: 16
Chances: 812
Shots: 3024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal24

8Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances6

2.37Expected goals2.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–4	6–2	1–0	1.3–0.3
2nd	5–10	0–6	0–3	0.4–1.3
3rd	12–10	2–4	0–3	0.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: +0.37

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 9
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.66
GSAx: -2.34

Dustin Wolf

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 10
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.27
GSAx: +0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:16Penalty
1st 7:16Penalty
1st 7:16Penalty
1st 14:27Penalty
1st 16:01Penalty
1st 19:42Penalty
2nd 1:51Max McCormick (0–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 4:31Andrew Poturalski (0–2)medium · 30 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 5:48Penalty
2nd 6:36Andrew Poturalski (0–3)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 9:19Penalty
2nd 9:19Penalty
2nd 11:59Penalty
2nd 12:57John Hayden (0–4)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 13:50Penalty
2nd 13:50Penalty
2nd 15:42Yan Kuznetsov (1–4)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 10:38Ryan Winterton (1–5)high · 18 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 18:05Kevin Rooney (2–5)medium · 26 ft · beat Aleš Stezka