Springfield Thunderbirds at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:5

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

SPRBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 3.73.6
High danger: 76
Chances: 1614
Shots: 3833

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal33

16Scoring chances14

7High-danger chances6

3.74Expected goals3.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–12	7–4	2–1	1.4–1.0
2nd	12–15	7–7	5–3	1.6–1.9
3rd	10–6	2–3	0–2	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.74
GSAx: +2.74

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.50
GSAx: -0.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:39Cole Bardreau (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 7:32Matthew Maggio (0–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 8:56Hunter Skinner (1–2)low · 62 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 16:15Penalty
1st 18:38Penalty
2nd 5:55Penalty
2nd 15:33Penalty
2nd 15:38Eetu Liukas (1–3)high · 11 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 16:20Carsen Twarynski (1–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 18:07Penalty
2nd 18:07Penalty
2nd 18:55Penalty
3rd 4:33Penalty
3rd 17:22Penalty
3rd 18:21Cole Bardreau (1–5)empty net · low · 25 ft