Belleville Senators at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Belleville Senators

3:1

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

BELSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 2.32.1
High danger: 41
Chances: 95
Shots: 1927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal27

9Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances1

2.25Expected goals2.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–7	1–1	0–0	0.2–0.4
2nd	12–5	4–0	2–0	1.4–0.2
3rd	4–15	4–4	2–1	0.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: +1.05

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:45Penalty
2nd 5:44Penalty
2nd 6:42Angus Crookshank (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 7:24Lassi Thomson (2–0)low · 22 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 18:29Penalty
3rd 14:11Penalty
3rd 14:11Penalty
3rd 15:37Matthew Highmore (3–0)empty net · high · 24 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 16:15Maxim Groshev (3–1)high · 24 ft · beat Mads Søgaard