Toronto Marlies at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Toronto Marlies

4:0

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

TORUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

91%9%

xG: 3.31.6
High danger: 30
Chances: 155
Shots: 3020

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal20

15Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances0

3.26Expected goals1.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	5–0	1–0	1.3–0.4
2nd	6–4	3–2	1–0	0.8–0.4
3rd	11–8	7–3	1–0	1.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.26
GSAx: -0.74

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 20
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.57
GSAx: +1.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:27Zach Solow (1–0)low · 29 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 12:49Robert Mastrosimone (2–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 13:12Penalty
1st 19:58Penalty
2nd 8:21Alex Steeves (3–0)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 9:15Penalty
2nd 10:39Penalty
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 15:03Penalty
3rd 5:45Penalty
3rd 8:54Penalty
3rd 10:44Ryan Tverberg (4–0)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 15:00Penalty