Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

1:4

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.53.6
High danger: 48
Chances: 912
Shots: 3137

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal37

9Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances8

2.53Expected goals3.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–16	5–7	2–4	1.2–1.6
2nd	12–13	4–2	2–1	1.1–1.1
3rd	5–8	0–3	0–3	0.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: -0.44

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: +1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:44Wade Allison (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 9:36Penalty
1st 9:43Ethen Frank (1–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 11:41Penalty
2nd 4:49Penalty
2nd 10:33Penalty
2nd 17:27Penalty
2nd 17:53Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 9:42Jacob Gaucher (1–2)low · 51 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 10:13Brendan Furry (1–3)high · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 12:24Penalty
3rd 12:35Samu Tuomaala (1–4)5v4 · high · tip · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 19:44Penalty