AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 2

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
2:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.32.7
High danger
34
Chances
1011
Shots
2828

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal28
10Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances4
2.33Expected goals2.69

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–74–10–00.8–0.5
2nd11–124–43–01.0–1.0
3rd5–92–60–40.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB37:58 of the 3rd12:0212:02+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
2.69
GSAx
-2.31
Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.33
GSAx
+0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:12Penalty
  • 1st 8:46Penalty
  • 1st 12:19Penalty
  • 1st 14:55Penalty
  • 2nd 8:29Penalty
  • 2nd 8:37Nicholas Jones (1–0)4v5 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 9:01Kristian Reichel (2–0)4v5 · high · 19 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 10:44Spencer Stastney (2–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 14:07Jake Livingstone (2–2)low · 26 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 16:11Marc Del Gaizo (2–3)low · 60 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 2:07Kevin Wall (2–4)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 6:39Penalty
  • 3rd 7:58Egor Afanasyev (2–5)4v5 · high · 22 ft · beat Collin Delia