AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 2

Bakersfield Condors at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Bakersfield Condors
5:3
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

BAKTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
89%11%
xG
4.91.9
High danger
81
Chances
207
Shots
3824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal24
20Scoring chances7
8High-danger chances1
4.94Expected goals1.86

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–45–42–11.6–0.6
2nd13–68–23–01.8–0.5
3rd11–147–13–01.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
4.93
GSAx
+0.93
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
1.86
GSAx
-1.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:19Kyle McDonald (0–1)high · 20 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 9:58Penalty
  • 1st 10:59Xavier Bourgault (1–1)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 11:20Matěj Blümel (1–2)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 11:43Penalty
  • 1st 13:40Penalty
  • 1st 17:40Greg McKegg (2–2)5v4 · low · 14 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 1:40Christian Kyrou (2–3)medium · 26 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 9:21Max Wanner (3–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 12:15Penalty
  • 2nd 13:46Seth Griffith (4–3)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 1:11Penalty
  • 3rd 11:31Penalty
  • 3rd 11:52Penalty
  • 3rd 19:36James Hamblin (5–3)empty net · low · 83 ft