Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles

5:2

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 2.22.3
High danger: 41
Chances: 76
Shots: 2132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances1

2.16Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–4	1–1	1–0	0.8–0.2
2nd	6–18	2–4	1–1	0.6–1.5
3rd	5–10	4–1	2–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	8:22 of the 3rd	11:38	8:49	+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Justus Annunen

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: +0.31

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: -2.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:00Penalty
1st 17:33Penalty
1st 17:33Penalty
1st 18:24Oskar Olausson (1–0)low · 34 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 2:11Cal Burke (2–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 4:13Penalty
2nd 8:46Cal Burke (3–0)high · 13 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 11:29Penalty
2nd 16:30Brandt Clarke (3–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Justus Annunen
2nd 17:58Penalty
3rd 0:31Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 7:12Penalty
3rd 8:22Peter Holland (4–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 9:19Colton Young (4–2)low · 32 ft · beat Justus Annunen
3rd 14:09Penalty
3rd 19:37Cédric Paré (5–2)empty net · medium · 23 ft · beat Aaron Dell