Rochester Americans at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Rochester Americans

3:1

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

ROCLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.82.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2833

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances4

2.75Expected goals2.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	1–3	1–1	0.7–0.8
2nd	12–9	5–3	2–0	1.2–0.7
3rd	8–11	4–7	1–3	0.9–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: +1.87

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: -0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:39Isak Rosén (1–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 10:57Penalty
1st 15:36Penalty
2nd 1:42Brandon Gignac (1–1)medium · wrist · 15 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 12:09Penalty
2nd 17:05Penalty
2nd 19:23Penalty
3rd 0:59Penalty
3rd 3:49Penalty
3rd 5:09Brett Murray (2–1)4v5 · high · backhand · 13 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
3rd 19:13Mason Jobst (3–1)empty net · medium · wrist · 17 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš