Toronto Marlies at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Toronto Marlies

5:6

Final / SO

Utica Comets

The sheet

TORUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.02.2
High danger: 44
Chances: 119
Shots: 3224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal24

11Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

3.02Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–13	1–2	1–1	0.4–0.7
2nd	13–8	6–5	1–3	1.3–1.2
3rd	8–3	3–2	2–0	0.7–0.3
OT	6–0	1–0	0–0	0.5–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.02
GSAx: -1.98

Keith Petruzzelli

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -2.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Josiah Slavin (1–0)low · 32 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
1st 5:25Timur Ibragimov (1–1)low · 25 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
1st 10:06Penalty
1st 10:06Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 0:23Penalty
2nd 1:41Penalty
2nd 4:18Arnaud Durandeau (1–2)low · 43 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 6:50Erik Middendorf (1–3)high · 12 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 10:47Nick Abruzzese (2–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 13:02Justin Dowling (2–4)grade A · 22 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 14:15Penalty
2nd 14:49Logan Shaw (3–4)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 17:33Penalty
2nd 18:28Joe Gambardella (3–5)5v4 · medium · 12 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
3rd 7:43Alex Steeves (4–5)high · 9 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 13:06Penalty
3rd 15:15Robert Mastrosimone (5–5)high · 18 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
OT 0:44Penalty