Providence Bruins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Providence Bruins

4:2

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

PROCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.13.5
High danger: 610
Chances: 915
Shots: 1937

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal37

9Scoring chances15

6High-danger chances10

2.08Expected goals3.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–16	3–8	2–5	0.9–1.7
2nd	2–10	2–1	0–1	0.2–0.4
3rd	7–11	4–6	4–4	0.9–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: +1.53

Ludovic Waeber

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 13
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: -1.45

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 3
Saves: 2
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.52
GSAx: -0.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:33Fabian Lysell (1–0)low · 26 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 8:34Dan Renouf (2–0)low · 65 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
1st 18:33Penalty
2nd 11:34Zac Dalpe (2–1)high · 20 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 0:53Jayson Megna (3–1)high · 10 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
3rd 2:57Penalty
3rd 3:21Wilmer Skoog (3–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 7:15Georgii Merkulov (4–2)high · 11 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
3rd 13:46Penalty
3rd 17:10Penalty