AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 3

Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds
6:3
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
4.03.6
High danger
86
Chances
1911
Shots
3236

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal36
19Scoring chances11
8High-danger chances6
3.96Expected goals3.64

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–155–32–30.9–1.7
2nd13–139–64–31.9–1.4
3rd11–85–22–01.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
3.64
GSAx
+0.64
Dylan Garand
Shots faced
32
Saves
26
Allowed
6
xGA
3.96
GSAx
-2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:02Penalty
  • 1st 9:05Jakub Vrana (1–0)low · 35 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 10:59Ryan Suzuki (2–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 13:59Jakub Vrana (3–0)high · 15 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 16:40Penalty
  • 1st 16:40Penalty
  • 1st 16:40Penalty
  • 1st 17:04Alex Belzile (3–1)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 0:55Brandon Scanlin (3–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 2:46Matt Rempe (3–3)grade A · 8 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 7:36Penalty
  • 2nd 7:36Penalty
  • 2nd 13:47Zach Dean (4–3)medium · 3 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 16:13Penalty
  • 3rd 7:54Matthew Peca (5–3)high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 18:08Will Bitten (6–3)empty net · low · 71 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 19:52Penalty