Iowa Wild at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Iowa Wild

3:2

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

IAHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 2.81.5
High danger: 41
Chances: 56
Shots: 3423

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal23

5Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances1

2.77Expected goals1.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	1–1	0–1	0.5–0.5
2nd	12–9	1–2	1–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	13–8	3–3	3–0	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	14:27 of the 3rd	5:33	5:33	+0.025 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -0.23

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.47
GSAx: -0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 18:50Penalty
2nd 1:14Steven Fogarty (1–0)grade A · snap · rebound · 13 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
2nd 3:55Penalty
2nd 4:28Sheldon Rempal (1–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 7:10Penalty
3rd 10:11Will Butcher (2–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 60 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 12:37Penalty
3rd 14:27Mason Shaw (3–1)4v5 · high · wrist · 15 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 14:51Penalty
3rd 17:59Byron Froese (3–2)medium · backhand · 32 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt