San Diego Gulls at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

San Diego Gulls

5:0

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

SDCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

63%37%

xG: 3.03.2
High danger: 114
Chances: 1410
Shots: 2538

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal38

14Scoring chances10

11High-danger chances4

3.01Expected goals3.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–16	4–4	3–2	0.7–1.3
2nd	12–13	8–4	7–1	1.8–1.1
3rd	9–9	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 38
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: +3.18

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: -1.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:40Penalty
1st 5:07Chase De Leo (1–0)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 7:02Penalty
1st 11:32Judd Caulfield (2–0)high · wrist · 3 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 3:50Penalty
2nd 3:56Penalty
2nd 5:07Glenn Gawdin (3–0)5v4 · high · slap · 34 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 8:17Penalty
2nd 11:30Josh Lopina (4–0)high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 5:42Penalty
3rd 8:30Penalty
3rd 8:53Chase De Leo (5–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 10:11Penalty
3rd 14:49Penalty