Bridgeport Islanders at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Bridgeport Islanders

1:4

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

BRIHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 3.22.3
High danger: 33
Chances: 129
Shots: 3829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances3

3.15Expected goals2.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–12	4–3	1–0	0.9–0.8
2nd	13–9	2–4	1–2	1.0–1.1
3rd	15–8	6–2	1–1	1.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.15
GSAx: +2.15

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: -1.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:39Julien Gauthier (1–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 7:08Penalty
1st 8:35Penalty
1st 18:00Penalty
2nd 3:48Penalty
2nd 8:02Penalty
2nd 12:32Penalty
2nd 13:20Ryder Korczak (1–1)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 15:09Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 18:35Brennan Othmann (1–2)low · 40 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 19:57Penalty
3rd 3:35Penalty
3rd 3:35Penalty
3rd 4:18Bobby Trivigno (1–3)high · 13 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 4:45Penalty
3rd 4:45Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 8:11Penalty
3rd 18:55Adam Sýkora (1–4)empty net · medium · 20 ft · beat Jakub Skarek