Tucson Roadrunners at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Tucson Roadrunners

1:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TUCIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 1.82.5
High danger: 04
Chances: 612
Shots: 2731

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal31

6Scoring chances12

0High-danger chances4

1.78Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	2–1	0–0	0.5–0.6
2nd	10–14	1–7	0–2	0.6–1.2
3rd	10–6	3–4	0–2	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +0.46

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.78
GSAx: +0.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:53Penalty
1st 5:13Penalty
1st 14:21Penalty
1st 15:02Penalty
2nd 1:09Penalty
2nd 7:15Sammy Walker (0–1)high · backhand · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 9:25Penalty
2nd 10:10Penalty
2nd 10:10Penalty
2nd 11:44Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 19:30Penalty
2nd 19:36Penalty
3rd 3:38Ryan O’Rourke (0–2)low · slap · 69 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 6:58Penalty
3rd 11:08Penalty
3rd 13:36Penalty
3rd 16:08Penalty
3rd 16:08Penalty
3rd 16:08Penalty
3rd 18:09Josh Doan (1–2)low · slap · 69 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 19:58Penalty