Laval Rocket at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Laval Rocket

7:1

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

LAVTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.22.5
High danger: 51
Chances: 1111
Shots: 3129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal29

11Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances1

3.25Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–8	3–1	2–0	1.3–0.5
2nd	13–8	5–5	2–1	1.3–1.0
3rd	6–13	3–5	1–0	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kasimir Kaskisuo

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: +1.45

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -2.04

Keith Petruzzelli

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 9
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.29
GSAx: -1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:58Penalty
1st 8:58Penalty
1st 11:38Filip Cederqvist (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
1st 11:53Penalty
1st 12:27Xavier Simoneau (2–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
1st 12:28Penalty
1st 12:28Penalty
1st 18:09Jan Myšák (3–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 7:14Penalty
2nd 11:10Nathan Légaré (4–0)low · 61 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 11:18Penalty
2nd 13:39Penalty
2nd 14:31Xavier Simoneau (5–0)5v4 · high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 15:44Logan Mailloux (6–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 16:57Penalty
2nd 17:47Roni Hirvonen (6–1)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
3rd 5:04Penalty
3rd 6:52Nathan Légaré (7–1)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 18:40Penalty