Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins

4:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.12.6
High danger: 41
Chances: 1110
Shots: 3035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal35

11Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances1

3.14Expected goals2.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–8	4–1	1–0	1.3–0.6
2nd	6–16	4–5	3–1	1.0–1.1
3rd	9–11	3–4	0–0	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: +1.61

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: -0.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:17Penalty
1st 9:25Penalty
1st 13:48Georgii Merkulov (1–0)low · 34 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 19:03Penalty
2nd 1:42Patrick Brown (2–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 4:58Penalty
2nd 6:21Jayson Megna (3–0)4v5 · high · 18 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 8:05Penalty
2nd 8:38Brennan Othmann (3–1)5v4 · low · 28 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 13:11Penalty
2nd 13:11Penalty
3rd 0:32Penalty
3rd 2:46Penalty
3rd 8:53Penalty
3rd 13:56John Farinacci (4–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Dylan Garand