Utica Comets at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Utica Comets

4:5

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

UTCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.32.9
High danger: 25
Chances: 710
Shots: 3333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal33

7Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

2.30Expected goals2.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	1–2	1–1	0.7–0.9
2nd	13–15	4–7	0–4	1.0–1.6
3rd	10–5	2–1	1–0	0.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:59 of the 3rd	7:01	7:01	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: -1.70

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 28
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.90
GSAx: -2.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:16Oskar Pettersson (0–1)high · 16 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 15:51Ryan Schmelzer (1–1)high · 10 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 0:27Penalty
2nd 3:34Penalty
2nd 6:14Penalty
2nd 10:39Jiri Smejkal (1–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 12:12Graeme Clarke (2–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 14:07Penalty
2nd 14:28Garrett Pilon (2–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 53 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 17:08Brian Halonen (3–3)low · 33 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 17:32Angus Crookshank (3–4)low · 39 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 8:50Penalty
3rd 12:39Penalty
3rd 12:59Garrett Pilon (3–5)5v4 · low · 35 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 14:30Penalty
3rd 19:10Kyle Criscuolo (4–5)low · 46 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen