Hershey Bears at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hershey Bears

3:6

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HERSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.11.9
High danger: 22
Chances: 108
Shots: 3724

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal24

10Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances2

3.14Expected goals1.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–8	1–3	1–1	0.7–0.6
2nd	14–11	6–4	1–0	1.2–1.0
3rd	18–5	3–1	0–1	1.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	10:54 of the 3rd	9:06	9:06	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: +0.14

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 18
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -4.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:34Penalty
1st 8:34Penalty
1st 11:42Penalty
1st 14:02Garrett Roe (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 15:22Penalty
1st 17:48Zachary Bolduc (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 2:55Keean Washkurak (1–2)medium · 30 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 4:30Adam Gaudette (1–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 5:18Penalty
2nd 10:32Penalty
2nd 15:24Hugh McGing (1–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 16:22Penalty
2nd 17:42Jake Massie (2–4)4v5 · low · 48 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 10:54Will Bitten (2–5)high · 9 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 11:18Penalty
3rd 11:18Penalty
3rd 11:44Penalty
3rd 13:30Alex Limoges (3–5)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 19:11Dylan Coghlan (3–6)empty net · low · 161 ft · beat Clay Stevenson