AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 10

Bakersfield Condors at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Bakersfield Condors
2:4
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

BAKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
3.03.8
High danger
69
Chances
911
Shots
3337

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal37
9Scoring chances11
6High-danger chances9
2.99Expected goals3.82

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–171–51–50.5–1.9
2nd13–93–33–21.2–1.0
3rd11–115–32–21.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
3.82
GSAx
-0.18
Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
33
Saves
31
Allowed
2
xGA
2.99
GSAx
+0.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:54Penalty
  • 1st 11:43Jacob Peterson (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 5:24Penalty
  • 2nd 10:03Nathan Todd (0–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 10:22Penalty
  • 2nd 13:03Penalty
  • 2nd 13:52Penalty
  • 2nd 15:33Penalty
  • 2nd 19:38Seth Griffith (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 1:15Ty Tullio (2–2)low · 35 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 11:26Penalty
  • 3rd 16:16Nathan Todd (2–3)high · 7 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 18:43Nathan Todd (2–4)empty net · medium · 11 ft · beat Jack Campbell