Abbotsford Canucks at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Abbotsford Canucks

2:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ABBCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.84.3
High danger: 710
Chances: 1519
Shots: 4033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal33

15Scoring chances19

7High-danger chances10

3.83Expected goals4.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–12	3–8	2–7	0.9–2.0
2nd	15–10	6–7	3–2	1.6–1.4
3rd	14–11	6–4	2–1	1.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.83
GSAx: +1.83

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.28
GSAx: +1.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:31Penalty
1st 8:41Penalty
1st 10:44Tanner Kero (0–1)high · rebound · 27 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 1:25Penalty
2nd 2:05Penalty
2nd 6:30Penalty
2nd 6:47Penalty
2nd 7:26Vasily Podkolzin (1–1)5v4 · high · 37 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 13:14Penalty
2nd 15:18Penalty
2nd 15:18Penalty
2nd 16:38D.J. Busdeker (1–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 16:56Ryan Sandelin (1–3)low · 33 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 18:22Penalty
2nd 18:22Penalty
2nd 18:22Penalty
3rd 4:57Penalty
3rd 16:40Penalty
3rd 19:58Aatu Räty (2–3)low · 26 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov