AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, February 13

Manitoba Moose at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Manitoba Moose
2:4
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

MBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
2.64.1
High danger
411
Chances
1018
Shots
3433

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal33
10Scoring chances18
4High-danger chances11
2.61Expected goals4.14

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–126–83–61.4–2.1
2nd9–123–51–20.9–1.0
3rd8–91–50–30.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Murphy
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
2.61
GSAx
+0.61
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
4.14
GSAx
+0.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:55Brett Sutter (0–1)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 10:00Penalty
  • 1st 11:48Cole Schwindt (0–2)5v4 · high · tip · 5 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 17:46Penalty
  • 2nd 1:02Brad Lambert (1–2)low · wrist · 37 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 2nd 3:46Penalty
  • 2nd 7:19Penalty
  • 2nd 7:53Jeffrey Viel (2–2)5v4 · high · tip · 9 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 2nd 12:31Penalty
  • 2nd 15:26Penalty
  • 3rd 11:21Penalty
  • 3rd 13:22Brett Sutter (2–3)5v4 · high · tip · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 14:26Penalty
  • 3rd 17:58Matt Coronato (2–4)empty net · medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 19:10Penalty