Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors

2:1

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

12%88%

xG: 1.63.3
High danger: 29
Chances: 415
Shots: 2633

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal33

4Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances9

1.60Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	0–6	0–2	0.4–1.1
2nd	9–10	3–4	1–3	0.7–0.9
3rd	7–12	1–5	1–4	0.5–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: +2.31

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.60
GSAx: -0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:10Penalty
1st 10:15Penalty
1st 17:48Penalty
2nd 2:24Penalty
2nd 3:10Peter Holland (0–1)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 10:50Penalty
2nd 14:20Ty Tullio (1–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 15:49Carter Savoie (2–1)high · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 7:50Penalty
3rd 12:33Penalty