Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

6:1

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

WBSTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

94%6%

xG: 2.61.1
High danger: 30
Chances: 124
Shots: 3217

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal17

12Scoring chances4

3High-danger chances0

2.62Expected goals1.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–3	2–1	0–0	0.4–0.2
2nd	15–7	7–2	1–0	1.4–0.6
3rd	11–7	3–1	2–0	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Petruzzelli

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 26
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: -3.38

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 16
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.08
GSAx: +0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:30Jonathan Gruden (1–0)low · 38 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 1:05Dylan Gambrell (1–1)low · 13 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 5:03Penalty
2nd 5:38Penalty
2nd 8:23Penalty
2nd 15:46Jack St. Ivany (2–1)low · 56 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 16:52Penalty
2nd 19:11Penalty
2nd 19:11Penalty
3rd 3:37Corey Andonovski (3–1)low · 43 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
3rd 12:22Alex Nylander (4–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
3rd 17:09Radim Zohorna (5–1)empty net · low · 22 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
3rd 18:12Jack St. Ivany (6–1)low · 62 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli