Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors

1:2

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 1.83.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 612
Shots: 2632

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal32

6Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances4

1.82Expected goals3.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–6	1–3	1–1	0.5–0.6
2nd	7–16	3–7	2–3	0.7–1.7
3rd	8–10	2–2	1–0	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +1.00

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: +0.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:51Penalty
2nd 4:06Penalty
2nd 6:53Adam Erne (1–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 8:20Ivan Ivan (1–1)high · 7 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 3:41Penalty
3rd 6:02Penalty
3rd 9:34Penalty
3rd 9:34Penalty
3rd 10:34Corey Schueneman (1–2)low · 46 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 19:18Penalty